利用灰關聯分析進行台灣地區貨櫃船公司財務績效代表性指標之擷取

利用灰關聯分析進行台灣地區貨櫃船公司財務績效代表性指標之擷取内容摘要：

航 運 季 刊 第十五卷 第一期 民國九十五年三月 頁 1 ∼ 頁 17 Maritime Quarterly Vol. 15 No. 1 March 2006 pp. 1~17 利用灰關聯分析進行台灣地區 貨櫃船公司財務績效代表性指標之擷取 Applying grey relation analysis to find the representative indicators of financial ratios for evaluating financial performance of container shipping companies on Taiwan 王昱傑 Yu-Jie Wang 1 摘要 為了評估台灣地區貨櫃船公司的財務績效，可將財務比率加以分群，再從其集 群中挑選出代表性財務指標當成評估準則。基於這樣的概念，本研究將貨櫃船公司 的財務比率初分為四個範疇，這些財務比率來自於資產負債表、損益表或是現金流 量表等。而後，吾人利用灰關聯分析對每一個範疇的財務比率進行分群。灰關聯分 析是一種著名的集群方法，常用於衡量那些元素資料訊息不完整或不清楚的關係。 在台灣，貨櫃船公司的財務比率常以小樣本或短期資料表示，是屬於不完整訊息， 因此灰關聯分析適合用於財務比率的分群。同時在分群之後，群內財務比率的關係 要高，而群與群之間的關係要低。最後，代表性財務指標將從這些集群中挑選而出。 關鍵字：代表性財務指標、灰關聯分析、財務比率、集群 Abstract There is a speculation of a forthcoming shortage of seafarers in the shipping industry, specifically for officers. What this research interested is whether such a shortage will in fact occur by the time. We first begin with an analysis of the supply dimension followed by estimates of seafarer demand. Then, we introduce the regional trends and divisions between senior officers, junior officers and ratings. Finally, this research tries to provide some policy recommendations to decision makers for the reason to improve the recruitment at the traditional shipping industry in Taiwan. The developments in economic and commercial activities have restructured the international seafaring labor force and altered the structure of seafarer employment. Because of a considerable reduction in recruitment and retention, there has been a strict decline in the number of seafarers coming from developed countries these years. The age of seafarers coming from developed countries has also become older. So, it now lack of adequate seafarers from developed countries, couple with a desire to reduce labor unit 1 蘭陽技術學院國貿系 助理教授 knight@mail.fit.edu.tw 1 航 運 季 刊 第十五卷 第一期 民國九十五年三月 costs for shipping companies, there should be an increasing demand for seafarers from developing countries around the world. Over the coming years we would expect to see a larger number of senior officers from the developing countries to replace the aging Taiwanese seafarers. But the shipping industry continues to prosper these years, developed countries and Taiwan will face the problem of officer shortage in the mean time. Is it means that the era of cheap seafarers providing has ended? Both shipping companies and government need to deliberate seriously whether they should train more Taiwanese officers in the near future to solve this shortage problem. For evaluating financial performance of container shipping companies on Taiwan, financial ratios would be clustered and then a representative indicator should be found from each cluster as an evaluation criterion. Based on the concept, financial ratios of container shipping companies are initially divided into four categories in this paper, and measured them by the messages of balance sheet, income statement or cash flow. Then, we utilize grey relation analysis to partition these financial ratios on each category into several clusters. Grey relation analysis being one of famous clustering methods is often applied in measuring the relation among the elements whose information is incomplete or unknown. On Taiwan, the financial ratios of container shipping companies usually express in small sample or short-term data belonging to incomplete messages, thus grey relation analysis is suitable for partitioning these financial ratios into several clusters. After clustering, the relations between financial ratios within clusters are high, whereas inter-clusters are low. Finally, representatives of financial ratios would be found form these clusters. Keywords: clustering; financial ratios; grey relation analysis; representative indicators 壹、緒論 以台灣地區的經濟發展而言，海運相關產業攸關國家國際貿易的競爭力[1]，特 別是貨櫃船公司，可說是台灣地區與國外推展國際貿易的橋樑。為了強化國際貿 易競爭力，貨櫃船公司必須瞭解本身之營運狀況以便於掌握競爭力。由於貨櫃船 公司需要大量的資金與眾多的設備，所以在資金的調度與資產的運用必須謹慎、 彈性且靈活，如此方能在國際上劇烈的競爭中立於不敗之地。基於上述的理由， 貨櫃船公司應該瞭解並掌控資金的調度與資產的運用；事實上對企業體而言，資 金 的 調 度 與 資 產 的 運 用 適 宜 與 否 ， 其 外 在 的 表 現 即 是 財 務 績 效 (financial performance)，財務績效通常也是投資者對該企業是否進行投資的重要依據，因此 評估財務績效，便成為投資者與企業管理階層一項重要的課題。 從過去的研究[2]、[3]、[4]、[5]、[6]、[7]、[8]發現，可用財務比率 (financial ratios)來評估 2 利用灰關聯分析進行台灣地區---貨櫃船公司財務績效代表性指標之擷取 財務績效。一般來說，財務比率[3]、[8]常從財務報表、損益平衡表或現金流量表中 獲得，只是財務比率極多，同時部分財務比率彼此之間具有高度的相似性 (similarity)，為了避免對相似度高的財務比率在財務績效上重複評估，有必要對財 務比率進行分群(clustering)的工作，使集群(cluster)內的財務比率的相關性高；而 群與群之間的財務比率相關性低。而後再從每個集群內的財務比率挑選出一代表 性財務指標(representative indicator)，每一代表性財務指標即為一個評估準則 (evaluation criteria)，得到各個評估準則便可以評估財務績效，由此可知從財務