The United States of Vulnerability: Russian Meddling in Public Opinion

The United States of Vulnerability: Russian Meddling in Public Opinion内容摘要：

The United States of Vulnerability: Russian Meddling in Public Opinion MacKenzie Olson Monmouth College Presented at 26th Annual Illinois State University Conference for Students of Political Science Normal, IL April 27, 2018 Abstract Did Russia use social media to influence public opinion in the US around the 2016 election, why would it, and why would it be an especially effective strategy? This paper argues that Russia used social media platforms as a means to pursue information warfare strategies with which they could sow discord and spread misinformation in the U.S., both before and after the 2016 election, with the ideal end result of a Trump presidency and a more authoritarian friendly populace. Russia is no stranger to using hybrid warfare to prevent further diffusion of democracy and to protect its interests in its own region, however past uses of its information warfare have not been as publicly documented as the latest interference in the United States. After social media giant Facebook’s testimony before congress specific examples of the types of misinformation and propaganda that were spread and their reach are now widely accessible. This paper will analyze these attempts at influencing the average American citizen for their potential to stir up authoritarianism through their use of group threat and other strategies for provoking the response. The significance of this research lies not in some exaggerated spin of the facts that paints the Trump victory as a consequence of Russian meddling, which no facts suggest, but in the revelation that despite being painted as some bastion of democracy the United States is more vulnerable to anti-democratic influence than we would like to believe. Introduction The 2016 U.S. Presidential election was a spectacle. As candidates battled for the chance to be a nominee there was no shortage of commentary on social media, and when it came down to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton there seemed to be even more vitriol and coverage than at the start of the race. Social media users at this time saw the meteoric rise of false news stories that were generally not intended as parody, and political internet memes which were typically pictures of a relevant topic with disparaging or positive remarks about a certain idea or person. After the alarm bells were rang by government officials at the Department of Homeland Security about probable Russian interference in the election through hacking and influencing public opinion there started to be some scrutiny of the origin of content on social media (Joint Statement, 2016). There was then a question of whether or not many of the people and pages encountered on social media were of Russian origin. Over time the question of Russian interference started to become a hot topic. People on social media sites like Twitter were making accusations about Russian “bots” infiltrating the site, and others on Facebook were speculating wildly about what was fake news and what were legitimate links. The conversation about possible election interference was politicized and almost turned into a partisan issue entirely because sensationalism seemed to frame it as Russia being at fault entirely for the outcome of the election. It was thought that the Russian government was pursuing information warfare by operating a business whose employees pretended to be Americans on sites like Facebook and Twitter. There were endless theories about why they would be stirring up trouble. There was denial, sensation, and misinformation flooding the internet. In summation, at the time things were very muddled for a variety of reasons. In this paper I seek to clear things up. Having the benefit of hindsight, we are able to discern a number of details that were not easily recognized during the election. This paper will serve to answer a three-part question: Did Russia use social media to influence public opinion in the US around the 2016 election, why would it, and why would it be an especially effective strategy? I will start by providing the evidence of interference that was presented by social media companies. To provide much needed context I will review some important details and concepts. I will discuss authoritarian regimes to give some background on Russia’s state and interests in comparison to democracies, and then define authoritarianism as well as discuss the ways it can be activated so as to prime a later discussion of the concept in relation to the weakening