… 调控技术研究”(2006BAD04B00), 科学基金项目“华北冬小麦干旱和晚霜冻害风险识别功能与预测研究”(30771248), 中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2006M39). 作者 …

… 调控技术研究”(2006BAD04B00), 科学基金项目“华北冬小麦干旱和晚霜冻害风险识别功能与预测研究”(30771248), 中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2006M39). 作者 …内容摘要：

冬小麦晚霜冻害时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律分析 张雪芬 1，2 郑有飞 1 王春乙 3 陈怀亮 4 任振和 3 邹春辉 4 1.南京信息工程大学,南京， 210044 2.中国气象局气象探测中心，北京， 100081 3.中国气象科学研究院，北京， 100081 4.河南省气象科学研究所，郑州， 450003 摘要 冬小麦晚霜冻害主要发生在中国的黄淮区域，河南占黄淮区域面积较大，是中国小麦的主 要产地，又是晚霜冻害的重发区，因此文章以河南为例，从构成晚霜冻害的最低温度和小 麦发育期两个因素出发，提出了晚霜冻害指数构建方法，使晚霜冻害指标定量化，并从多 年数据库中计算出逐年晚霜冻害发生强度和发生天数。由于小麦发育期观测资料序列较短， 影响了大尺度小麦晚霜冻害变化规律的分析，因而提出了冬小麦发育期资料推算方法；对 计算出的近 50 年晚霜冻害资料进行 EOF 分析和 Morlet 小波分析，以发现晚霜冻害的时空 分布与多时间尺度变化规律。结果表明：冬小麦晚霜冻害发生频率较高，高发区频率超过 40%，且在 20 世纪 70—90 年代有增多的趋势；发生强度和天数变化趋势基本相似，具有 发生强度较重区对应着发生天数较多区的趋势，且前者对小麦产量的影响大于后者；晚霜 冻害发生强度的重发区分布在豫东南和豫西南，轻发区主要分布在淮河以南及豫西部分地 区，其中第 1 模态分布型存在 16 年、第 2 模态分布型存在准 2 年的多时间尺度变化规律； 发生天数的多发区主要分布在豫北北部和豫西南边界，少发区在豫东北及豫西南中部，其 中第 1 模态分布型存在着准 4 年、第 2 模态分布型存在准 3 年和准 6—7 年的周期。 关键词 晚霜冻害，冻害指数，EOF 分析，Morlet 小波分析 资助课题： 国家科技部“十一五”科技支撑项目“农业重大气象灾害监测预警与调控技术研 究”（2006BAD04B00）, 科学基金项目“华北冬小麦干旱和晚霜冻害风险识别功能与预测 研究”（30771248）, 中国气象局新技术推广项目（CMATG2006M39）。 作者简介：张雪芬，主要从事农业气象遥感应用、农业气象灾害风险研究 。 Email:sophyzxf@163.com 2006-05-6 收稿,2008-06-06 改回. 中图法分类号 P49 P429 Spatial-temporal distribution and multiple-temporal scale variation analyses of winter wheat late freezing injury ZHANG Xuefen 1，2 ZHENG Youfei1 WANG Chunyi3 CHEN Huailiang4 REN Zhenghe3 ZOU Chunhui4 1.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology，Nanjing 210044, China 2.Meteorological Observation Center of CMA, Beijing 100081, China 3.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China 4. Henan Provincial Institute of Meteorology, Zhengzhou 450003, China Abstract The winter wheat late freezing injury (WFI, or frost damage) mainly occurs in the Yellow River and the Huaihe River area, of which Henan Province possesses the most part. Henan is both the major producing area of wheat and the harder -hit area of WFI. In this paper, we present a WFI index based on minimum temperature and winter wheat development period (WDP), and calculate the WFI degrees and days at 30 agrometeorological stations of Henan Province in 1981-2004. For the large-scale variation analysis of WFI, the 24-year WDP observation sequence is relatively short, therefore it is expanded by using the relation between the tuning green date of winter wheat and the 5-day running mean temperature and that between the stem elongation phase and the effective cumulative temperature above a base of 2.5 ℃. And then the expanded data of WFI in the last about 50 years are analyzed by EOF and Morlet techniques to reveal the regulations of spatial temporal distribution and multiple-temporal scale variability of WFI. The results show that the frequency of WFI was higher, above 40% in highincidence areas in Henan Province; and the WFI exhibited a rising trend in the 1970s-1990s. The trend of WFI degrees was similar to that of WFI days, and the areas of heavier WFI degrees usually corresponded to the areas of more days of WFI. The impact of winter wheat frost damage degree on the winter yield was more remarkable than that of the frequency of WFI. The incidence areas of heavy WFI degree lay in the southeast and southwest of Henan, and the areas of light WFI degree in the south side of the Huaihe River and parts of western Henan. The first/second EOF mode of WFI degrees displayed 16 years/quasi 2 years multiple time scale variability, respectively. The high/low frequent areas of WFI were distributed in the north of northern Henan and the southwest border of Henan/the northeast Henan and the middle part of southwest Henan, respectively. The first/second EOF mode of WFI days exhibited quasi 4 years/quasi 3 years and quasi 6-7 years multiple time scale variability, respectively. Key words Late frost damage, Freezing injury index, EOF analysis, Morlet analysis